Democracy Soup

Making sense out of the world of politics

Which true red states can Barack Obama win in November?

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Originally published on BuzzFlash.com on Mon, 10/20/2008 – 1:25pm

In 1964, these states voted for Lyndon B. Johnson. But before that, the last Democratic candidate to win was Franklin D. Roosevelt.

State Last time Democratic Previous time
Indiana 1936 1932
Kansas 1936 1932
Nebraska 1936 1932
North Dakota 1936 1932
South Dakota 1936 1932

The L word. No, not liberal or lesbian. L*ndsl*de.

Yes, the Barack Obama campaign doesn’t want to use the word. Understandably so.

However, this is the season where the Chicago Tribune endorsed a Democrat for president (never did before), Los Angeles Times endorsed a Democrat for president (no endorsements since 1972, Nixon was the last one), Stockton Record (no Democratic presidential endorsements since 1936).

Endorsements are nice, but electoral votes are where it counts. So where does Obama need to win to show true dominance?

Well, in 1964, these states voted for Lyndon Johnson, but no Democrat since:

Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming.

Now this election came on the heels of JFK’s assassination in 1963, and might not be a true test of Democratic prowess. Factoring in that Alaska has only been able to vote for president since 1959, a few of these states broke for Democrats in other years:

1948
Virginia, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma

1944
Virginia, Idaho, Utah, Oklahoma

1940
Virginia, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma

But will there be a break in the true red 5, the top 5 red states through thick and thin? All of them voted for LBJ in 1964, but that vote snapped a 28-year streak. Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota are the true tests. If Obama can win those states, then the L word can be used.

So which states do you think Obama can win that are dyed in the wool, true red states? Let us know what you think.

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Written by democracysoup

October 20, 2008 at 1:25 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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